Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.015376 0.017412 0.019634 0.022242 0.025224 0.028530 0.032481
2024-10-20 0.011898 0.014593 0.017794 0.021889 0.027005 0.033210 0.041343
2024-10-27 0.009776 0.012635 0.016226 0.021089 0.027540 0.035854 0.047465
2024-11-03 0.008869 0.011974 0.016057 0.021860 0.029955 0.040944 0.057147
2024-11-10 0.008116 0.011375 0.015834 0.022440 0.032072 0.045751 0.066912
2024-11-17 0.007494 0.010857 0.015627 0.022958 0.034080 0.050536 0.077128
2024-11-24 0.006759 0.010082 0.014945 0.022673 0.034815 0.053452 0.084776
2024-12-01 0.006159 0.009437 0.014375 0.022464 0.035598 0.056457 0.092832
2024-12-08 0.005652 0.008879 0.013871 0.022284 0.036371 0.059474 0.101188
2024-12-15 0.005367 0.008638 0.013832 0.022834 0.038365 0.064656 0.113790
2024-12-22 0.004961 0.008160 0.013362 0.022608 0.039003 0.067571 0.122674
2024-12-29 0.004782 0.008042 0.013469 0.023365 0.041409 0.073790 0.138304
2025-01-05 0.004333 0.007433 0.012706 0.022547 0.040950 0.074877 0.144508
2025-01-12 0.004006 0.007009 0.012229 0.022198 0.041321 0.077544 0.154147
2025-01-19 0.003644 0.006491 0.011539 0.021386 0.040719 0.078267 0.159904
2025-01-26 0.003546 0.006442 0.011689 0.022168 0.043281 0.085436 0.179970
2025-02-02 0.003427 0.006345 0.011740 0.022757 0.045511 0.092164 0.199946
2025-02-09 0.003309 0.006238 0.011760 0.023283 0.047657 0.098938 0.220897
2025-02-16 0.003103 0.005943 0.011396 0.022993 0.048055 0.102023 0.233781
2025-02-23 0.002923 0.005687 0.011084 0.022782 0.048596 0.105464 0.247932
2025-03-02 0.002760 0.005453 0.010798 0.022599 0.049179 0.109052 0.262896
2025-03-09 0.002685 0.005390 0.010855 0.023157 0.051475 0.116800 0.289267
2025-03-16 0.002539 0.005169 0.010566 0.022928 0.051939 0.120299 0.305209